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Indian Express
24 minutes ago
- Politics
- Indian Express
What Operation Sindoor tells us about the nature of escalation, and India's changing approach
The four-night military confrontation between India and Pakistan that began early on May 7 was the most expansive outbreak of hostilities since the war of 1971. The Kargil conflict of 1999 was limited to a small area in Jammu and Kashmir; during Operation Sindoor, India hit targets up to 100 km inside Pakistan and Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK), and Pakistan launched aerial attacks against J&K, Punjab, Rajasthan, even Haryana. In terms defined by the American military strategist and thinker Herman Kahn's 44-step 'escalation ladder', the situation can be seen as having begun with the terrorist attack in Pahalgam on April 22 — the 'Ostensible Crisis' — and gone up to the stage of 'Dramatic Military Confrontations' before being paused by the ceasefire of May 10. The idea of escalation began to appear in strategic literature in the years after the end of World War II, in part as a reaction to the idea of 'all-out' war. Kahn, a futurist and military strategist who co-founded the Washington DC think tank Hudson Institute with the vision of 'thinking about the future in unconventional ways', was the preeminent Western theorist of the 'structure' of escalation. Kahn's metaphor for escalation was a ladder, each rung of which denoted a rising level of conflict. In 1962, Kahn proposed a 16-step ladder of escalation from 'Subcrisis Disagreement' to 'Aftermath'. Three years later, he published On Escalation: Metaphors and Scenarios (1965), in which he developed a more detailed, 44-step ladder of escalation — with 'Ostensible Crisis' as Step 1, and 'Spasm/ Insensate War' as Step 44. The India-Pakistan escalation The Pahalgam terror attack can be described as 'Ostensible Crisis' — Step 1, in which 26 civilians including 25 tourists and one local Kashmiri were killed by Pakistan-backed terrorists on April 22. This led to Step 2, 'Political, Economic and Diplomatic Gestures' — India's decisions from April 23 onward can be labeled as such. These include the decision to keep the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance, cancelling the visas of Pakistani nationals, stopping trade and postal services, closing India's air space for Pakistan's aircraft, not allowing Pakistan-flagged ships to dock at Indian ports, etc. Then came Kahn's Step 3 — 'Solemn and Formal Declarations'. India's top leadership declared the intent to avenge the killings of the tourists at Pahalgam — Prime Minister Narendra Modi vowed to 'pursue the terrorists and those who shelter them to the very end'. And Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif promised a 'crushing reply to any Indian misadventure'. Kahn's Step 4 is the 'Hardening of Positions — Confrontation of Wills'. India blamed Pakistan for not taking action against terrorist groups, while Islamabad asked for evidence of India's accusation. It also said that India's position on the IWT would be deemed as an 'act of war'. Step 5, Kahn's rung of 'Show of Force' was seen as the Indian Navy on April 27 carried out multiple anti-ship missile firings, underlining its preparedness for long-range offensive strikes. On May 3, Pakistan test-fired Abdali, its surface-to-surface ballistic missile with a 450-km range. Step 6 — 'Significant Mobilisation' — was quick and stealthy, and from May 7 onward, the escalation quickly reached rungs 8 ('Harassing Acts of Violence') and 9 ('Dramatic Military Confrontations'). India struck at nine terror locations in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, and successfully thwarted Pakistani drone attacks along the western border. The two militaries remained at Step 9 for four nights before they agreed to stop military action — this is where Kahn's escalation ladder was aborted. 2016, 2019: change of doctrine In Choices: Inside the Making of Indian Foreign Policy, former National Security Adviser Shiv Shankar Menon concluded the chapter on the 26/11 terror attacks ('Restraint or Riposte? The Mumbai Attack and Cross-Border Terrorism from Pakistan') with the sentence: '…Personalities matter. With a different mix of people at the helm, it is quite possible that India would have chosen [to act] differently [in the aftermath of the attacks]. In fact, if India is forced to make a similar choice in the future, I am sure it will respond differently.' The book was published in November 2016. Weeks earlier, on September 29, Indian special forces had crossed the Line of Control to carry out surgical strikes on terrorist launchpads in PoK. That October, Prime Minister Narendra Modi told a gathering in Mandi, Himachal Pradesh: 'Earlier Israel used to be spoken of like this (in the context of carrying out targeted military strikes against its enemies). Now everyone knows our Army can do it too and is no less capable.' A little over two years later, in February 2019, the Prime Minister said in Hindi at a public meeting in Churu, Rajasthan: 'I swear by this soil that I won't let the nation be destroyed, I won't let the nation be stopped. It is my promise to Bharat Ma that I won't let her head be bowed.' In these two speeches, the Prime Minister mentioned neither the surgical strikes nor the Balakot air strikes of February 26, 2019, but the change in India's doctrine of response to terrorism was clear. In his address to the nation on May 12 this year, Modi articulated the elements of India's current doctrine against terrorism: a befitting response on India's terms; zero tolerance for Pakistan's nuclear blackmail; and no distinction between terrorist leaders and state sponsors of terrorism. He also made it clear that India had only 'suspended' its military action, and underlined that for New Delhi, this was the 'new normal' now. India's new policy is qualitatively higher in aggression. Targeting the Pak establishment that has long used cross-border terrorism as an instrument of policy means the military and government of that country are not off-limits for future retributive actions. By linking Pakistan-based groups like the Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed to major terrorist attacks in the US and UK, Modi framed Operation Sindoor as India's war on terrorism, similar to what NATO launched in Afghanistan after 9/11. The PM also painted Pakistan as a country that protects, rather than going after, terrorists, and laid down the red lines on resuming the bilateral dialogue that has been suspended since 2016. Takeaways, outlook going forward New Delhi has its task cut out — politically, diplomatically, and militarily. LOWER THRESHOLD FOR ACTION: India's 'new normal' has lowered the threshold of response in case of a major terrorist attack in future. In terms of Kahn's ladder of escalation, this could mean India's response will begin from Step 3 (Solemn and Formal Declarations) and could very quickly escalate to Steps 9 (Dramatic Military Confrontations) and 10 ('Provocative Breaking off of Diplomatic Relations'). Step 12 ('Large Conventional War') would be very much on the horizon. DIPLOMATIC CHALLENGE: Pakistan has been trying to project itself as the victim before the international community. New Delhi is concerned at the false equivalence between the two countries that some in the West have suggested, along with a re-hyphenation of India and Pakistan. The multi-political party outreach by the Indian government, where bipartisan political delegations are currently travelling the world, explaining to countries that India was the original victim in Pahalgam, and that it responded in self-defence. THE DONALD TRUMP FACTOR: President Trump's claim of a 'US-brokered ceasefire' has created a challenge for India, which has always rejected any third-party involvement in India-Pakistan issues. Trump's view of the May 10 ceasefire as a success for American diplomacy and the first 'military confrontation' that he has been able to stop from escalating presents Indian diplomacy with a delicate task. New Delhi has to navigate Trump's unpredictable statements and posts on social media, pushing back with tact and conviction. NEW FRONTIERS OF WAR: Besides upgrading its military prowess to dominate in the air, at sea, and on land, India will have to also build capacity in the new frontiers of war where evolving and improving technology is changing the rules very rapidly. Shubhajit Roy, Diplomatic Editor at The Indian Express, has been a journalist for more than 25 years now. Roy joined The Indian Express in October 2003 and has been reporting on foreign affairs for more than 17 years now. Based in Delhi, he has also led the National government and political bureau at The Indian Express in Delhi — a team of reporters who cover the national government and politics for the newspaper. He has got the Ramnath Goenka Journalism award for Excellence in Journalism '2016. He got this award for his coverage of the Holey Bakery attack in Dhaka and its aftermath. He also got the IIMCAA Award for the Journalist of the Year, 2022, (Jury's special mention) for his coverage of the fall of Kabul in August 2021 — he was one of the few Indian journalists in Kabul and the only mainstream newspaper to have covered the Taliban's capture of power in mid-August, 2021. ... Read More
Indian Express
24 minutes ago
- Business
- Indian Express
‘Substantial grounds' for rejecting L&T bid for Mumbai elevated road and tunnel projects, MMRDA tells SC
The Mumbai Metropolitan Region Development Authority (MMRDA) on Thursday told the Supreme Court that there were 'substantial grounds' for rejecting the technical bid of Larsen and Toubro (L&T) for the proposed approximately Rs 6,000 crore Mumbai Elevated Road Project and the Rs 8,000 crore Road Tunnel Project. 'There are substantial grounds,' Solicitor General Tushar Mehta, appearing for MMRDA, told a bench of Chief Justice of India B R Gavai and A G Masih, which raised doubts about the disqualification. Hearing the matter on May 26, CJI Gavai had wondered how the company chosen by the central government for the construction of the Central Vista project had failed to pass muster for the Mumbai projects. As the bench took up the matter again on Thursday, Mehta urged the court to hear it on Friday. While agreeing to the request, the CJI once again raised the question of L&T being chosen for the Central Vista project. Pointing out that there is public money involved, the CJI added, 'The question is the person who is building Central Vista…'. CJI Gavai, apparently highlighting the need to ensure safety standards, referred to the 2023 collapse of an under-construction tunnel in Uttarakhand where 41 workers were trapped and subsequently rescued. 'L&T is disqualified, but the person who has been granted has such…,' said the CJI. Before he could complete, Senior Advocate Kapil Sibal, appearing for L&T, added, 'Enormous credentials.' Megha Engineering and Infrastructure Limited is the successful L1 bidder for the project. Senior Advocate Mukul Rohatgi, appearing for MMRDA, said, 'We have not shown Your Lordships the reasons. If Your Lordships were to see the reasons…'. The CJI said, 'We will consider it.' Mehta said Rohatgi 'wants to convey that the disqualification is not on any flimsy' grounds. 'Not fanciful' grounds, added Rohatgi. The senior counsel added, 'We have examined the reports. Our problem is that the tender says we cannot disclose'. Rohatgi was implying that the tender conditions restrain the MMRDA from disclosing the reasons for disqualifying a bidder till the contract is awarded. On May 26, the bench had asked MMRDA whether it was willing to retender the projects, failing which, the court said, it would stay the tender process. The Elevated Road Project envisages a 9.80 km bridge passing along the Vasai Creek. It is part of an extension of the Mumbai Coastal Road Project and a part of the MMRDA's larger road expansion project involving the construction of an around 15 km stretch of road from Gaimukh in Thane to Bhayander. The Road Tunnel Project is for the design and construction of an underground road tunnel from Gaimukh to Fountain Hotel Junction on Thane Ghodbunder Road. It envisages 5 km-long twin tunnels of a finished diameter of 14.6 m. The principal ground of L&T's challenge is that it was technically disqualified from the process without any intimation or reasons. It contended that the arbitrary and non-transparent manner of carrying out the tender process has resulted in the declaration of the L1 bid for both projects to Megha Engineering & Infrastructure Ltd. at a substantially higher project cost. L&T had initially challenged the MMRDA's decision to proceed with the opening of the price bids without the presence of L&T, and without communication of any disqualification to it, before the Bombay High Court. The same was dismissed via two orders on May 20, following which it approached the Supreme Court.
Indian Express
28 minutes ago
- Indian Express
Pune police arrest fake woman lawyer for cheating senior citizen of nearly Rs 6 lakh
The Pune city police Wednesday arrested a woman posing as a lawyer for allegedly cheating a senior citizen of Rs 5.94 lakh. The police have identified the accused as Snehal Harishchandra Kamble, 32, a resident of Loni Kalbhor. A 63-year-old man from the Ahilya Nagar district lodged the First Information Report (FIR) in this case at the local police station on Wednesday. The police said the victim is not well-educated and unaware of legal issues. As per a press release issued on Thursday, Kamble allegedly told the elderly man that his daughter-in-law has filed a complaint of rape and harassment against him with the police and the State Commission for Women. Posing as a lawyer, Kamble then allegedly offered legal services to the senior citizen. The police said Kamble allegedly took money from the victim from time to time, saying the money was required for 'bribing the cops and court staff,' to prevent his arrest in the case filed by his daughter-in-law. The press release stated that from April 24 to May 28, the victim gave Rs 5,94,060 in cash and through online transactions to Kamble. But later he realised that Kamble had cheated him. So, he approached Deputy Commissioner of Police (DCP) Rajkumar Shinde for help. DCP Shinde ordered a probe into this matter. Accordingly, a team led by police sub-inspector Ratnadeep Birajdar laid a trap and nabbed Kamble red-handed while accepting a cash of Rs 15,000 from the senior citizen at her office in Loni Kalbhor area on Wednesday. The police said they did a video recording of Kamble as she took and counted the cash while pretending to be a lawyer. They have seized some FIR copies, court orders, property papers, complaint applications, and other documents from Kamble. 'We are probing whether the accused has cheated more people. We are seeking her custody from the court for further investigation,' said senior police inspector Rajendra Panhale. The police have booked Kamble under Sections 308 (2) (3), 318 (4), 319 (1)(2) of the Bharatiya Nyaya Sanhita.
Indian Express
29 minutes ago
- General
- Indian Express
Off Kerala coast, a washed-up container from a sunken ship sparks curiosity, conspiracy theories and some chemistry guesses
A lone, battered shipping container that has washed up on the beach in Paravur, a small fishing hamlet between Thiruvananthapuram and Kollam, is the talk of the town. The reddish-brown container, like many more than have beached all along Kerala's coast following the recent sinking of a Liberia-registered ship, has piqued curiosity and, for now, taken a daily staple off the plates of most households in these parts – fish. On Sunday, May 25, MSC Elsa 3, an 184-metre-long container ship, sank while it was sailing from Vizhinjam port to Cochin port, triggering alarm in coastal hamlets all the way from Alappuzha in mid-north Kerala to Kollam further south. The ship was carrying an estimated 640 containers, including 13 with 'hazardous cargo', of which 12 are said to have contained calcium carbide. A solid compound, calcium carbide is not flammable by itself, but it reacts vigorously with water and moisture to produce highly flammable acetylene gas, posing a significant fire hazard. The ship also had 84 metric tonnes of diesel and 367 metric tonnes of furnace oil, the Coast Guard said Sunday. Around Paravur beach, men in khaki have been deployed to guard the container, lest some intrepid local falls prey to curiosity and tries to prise it open. A constable has been deputed to clear traffic as people slow down vehicles on the narrow beach road to check out the container. Taking advantage of the sudden rush of onlookers, an ice cream vendor has strategically shifted closer to this spot on the beach, adding to the problems of the constable who struggles to clear the occasional 'block' – the term used for a traffic jam. There are a bunch of people on the beach shooting reels and shorts with the container in the backdrop, as are children in uniform, who have taken a detour on their way home from school to witness the local spectacle. In this sleepy Kerala town, where the high point of the year are the fireworks at a local temple, the coming of the container is an assured selfie moment. Valsala Srikumar, though, has a harried look. 'I have barely sold anything. The same as Monday,' she says, standing metres away from the ice cream vendor, peddling a full stock of fish on a yard stool by the beach road. Metres away, the container bobs gently as the waves crash into it. All around the container and further south along the coast, the water is white and foamy – one reason why people are keeping off fish. Today, Valsala's husband has ventured out 'to the cleaner parts' seeking a catch, but it's pointless now. 'What is the use if no one is buying,' she says. Fishing boats are moored along the beach, with little activity at the far end where the fisherfolk stay. A kilometer away, at Oottupurayil restaurant in Paravur Kombolam, a market with a cluster of shops, waiter Anees says clients are shunning seafood. 'This is just a phase,' he hopes. Back on the beach, there are speculative guesses on the contents of the container. The locals, helped by WhatsApp forwards and their vestigial knowledge of the periodic table, rattle off names of the multiple chemical compounds the containers ostensibly contained – all the way from arsenic to zinc, lead and mercury. For a populace fed on a steady diet of politics and media, conspiracy theories come easy. 'Is Liberia linked to Pakistan… like Turkey?' a person in the crowd asks, a query that's quickly dismissed by someone else who is more well-versed in these matters. A ship's flag state testifies to the country where it is registered, but much of this is determined by the tonnage tax advantages offered by jurisdictions such as Liberia or Cyprus. Three days since MSC Elsa 3 sank, the Indian Navy and the Coast Guard are trying to contain any oil spill from the ship. Teams of scientists from the Central Marine Fisheries Research Institute, under the Ministry of Fisheries, Animal Husbandry and Dairying, are collecting water and sediment samples across locations on the Kerala coast. The onset of the monsoon hasn't helped, with the surging tides making the operations difficult. While the containers are being removed from the coastline, one by one, a clean-up of the beach waters could be a long way off. Until that happens, Valsala's fishing business could be in some trouble. And despite the optimism of the Oottupurayil waiter, this phase could last a while.
Indian Express
34 minutes ago
- Entertainment
- Indian Express
Param Sundari first look: Sidharth Malhotra and Janhvi Kapoor in another ‘north meets south' Bollywood flick. Watch
Maddock Films have just released the first look for their upcoming romantic film Param Sundari, featuring stars Sidharth Malhotra and Janhvi Kapoor in the lead roles. Tushar Jalota will be helming the project, and from an initial glance, the film looks like a 'two lovers from different backgrounds' story, a thread both actors have pulled in their prior films. Param (Sidharth) and Sundari (Janhvi) belong to opposite sides of our country, with the former likely playing a 'loud and heart-on-his-sleeve' kind of guy from the North and the latter emulating a sophisticated, sober and intelligent girl from the South. The video introduces them as such, with the grand shots of the two dancing and singing amid nature, wearing matching outfits for every different shot. A montage of shots then comes together, showcasing the obvious troubles they are going to face in the story, such as Param being chased by people presumably from Sundari's family or Param walking away from a house that seems to be decorated for a wedding while someone who is Sundari turns her back to him. ALSO READ: Janhvi Kapoor couldn't care less about being called 'plastic', predicts that she'll be trolled for her looks at Cannes The first look seems to give a sneak peek into a story that is going to be through and through Bollywood, with fans likening it to 'Shah Rukh Khan and Kajol-like' dance sequences and the 'Ranbir Kapoor walking away from a wedding' sequences. Director Tushar Jalota is being joined by Sachin-Jigar for the music of the film, while Amitabh Bhattacharya has penned the lyrics. While Sidharth is coming off a lacklustre performance in Yodha (2024), Janhvi just experienced a career-defining moment just a few days ago when Homebound, a film she was starring in alongside Ishaan Khatter, received a 9-minute-long ovation at the Cannes International Film Festival. As Sidharth looks for a win on the professional front, he has his hands full on the personal side, as he and wife Kiara Advani are expecting their first child soon. The Bollywood couple announced the pregnancy earlier this year.
